Focus on the Big Picture
Why your highs and lows don't define your long-term success.
You can’t control 100% of the outcomes in your life, but you can leverage luck and risk to work in your favor.
Taking out a loan for a degree is a risk—you’re betting that the investment will pay off with a career that lets you repay the debt. A position opening at your dream job right as you apply? That’s luck.
In Chapter 2 of The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel emphasizes that luck and risk are ever-present forces in our lives. But he warns against fixating on individual success stories or failures—because nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.
Studying a specific person can be dangerous because we tend to study extreme examples - The billionaires, the CEO’s, or the massive failures that dominate the news - and extreme examples are often the least applicable to other situations, given their complexity. The more extreme the outcome, the less likely you can apply its lessons to your own life, because the more likely outcome was influenced by extreme ends of luck or risk.
You’ll get closer to actionable takeaways by looking for broad patterns of success and failure.
When we study success, we tend to focus on extreme cases—the billionaires, the CEOs, or the spectacular failures that dominate the news. But extreme examples are often the least useful because they’re shaped by circumstances that don’t apply to most people. The more exceptional the outcome, the more likely luck or risk played an outsized role. If we focus only on those outliers, we risk drawing misleading conclusions about what leads to real, sustainable progress. Or we might draw the conclusion that we just aren’t lucky enough to achieve greatness.
A better approach is to zoom out. Instead of idolizing (or fearing) individual case studies, look for broad patterns of success and failure. What habits, mindsets, and decisions tend to lead to better outcomes over time?
In our drive to improve and achieve more, it’s easy to fall into doubt. Setbacks are inevitable, and they can shake our confidence—especially when social media constantly floods us with polished highlights of others’ success. When you hit a career or personal roadblock, it’s natural to feel like you’re falling behind. But remember: the big picture matters more than any single moment.
By focusing on the patterns that truly drive success—rather than isolated wins, viral stories, or the curated achievements of those around you—you’ll build a foundation for long-term growth without getting lost in misleading comparisons.